Hypotheses table

The hypothesis are a first step in operationalizing the framework and moving towards research.

In the table below, we have broken down the various DFM research themes and their corresponding hypothesis of the project

Conceptualization	Theme	Hypothesis	Questions
Context
	Bio-physical environment	Conditions of dried fish production shape, and are shaped by, the integrity of the natural resource base	How has the health of fish stocks used for DF production changed within the past 10 years, and how has this altered DF production and consumption practices? How have changes in the capture, utilization and consumption of fish (fresh and dried) altered the health of fish stocks used for DF production?
	Social environment	Conditions of dried fish production shape, and are shaped by, the characteristics of the social environment (including cultural and political factors)	What social categories (e.g. class, ethnicity, gender relations, caste, religion) influence the organization of DFVCs? How does the participation of actors in DFVCs contribute to the reworking of social categories and structures?
Drivers
	Modernization	Food system modernization (e.g. supermarkets, safety standards, online marketing, technological change) is altering the structure, conduct and performance of DFVCs	What share of DF is marketed through modern channels, how rapidly is this changing, and how much is it likely to change within the next 10 years? What opportunities and challenges does food system modernization present for actors in DFVCs (including consumers)?
	Migration	Migration shapes the conditions of dried fish production by affecting the availability of workers in DFVCs	How dependent are DFVCs on migrant labour, how is this changing over time, why, and with what effects, for workers, employers and VC conduct?
	Inter-sectoral competition	Land and water use change (e.g. coastal grabbing) are altering the structure, conduct, and performance of DFVCs	What environmental factors (e.g. climate, competing land uses of land and water, dams, roads) affect the production and consumption of DF, and how?
	Intra-sectoral competition	Fisheries aimed at other product types (e.g. animal feeds) are altering the structure, conduct, and performance of DFVCs	How much DF is diverted to non-human food uses, how has this changed in the past 10 years, and why? Are food and non-food uses of RF in competition with one another, with what effects?
Dried fish value chains (DFVCs)
	Economy: structure	DFVCs tend to be hourglass in shape, with large numbers of producers, processors, retailers, and consumers, linked by few wholesalers	How is economic value (profit) distributed among the different actors in DFVCs, and how is this changing over time? What share of employment does each VC segment account for?
	Economy: structure	There is relatively little vertical integration in DFVCs	Is the concentration of ownership of capital in DFVCs changing over time, and if so how?
	Technological: conduct:	DFVCs are highly responsive to new technologies (e.g. ice, cold storage, motors, pesticides, new gears)	How has the introduction of new technologies altered the behavior of upstream actors in DFVCs and how has this affected their wellbeing?
	Economy: conduct	Economic value (profit) is concentrated among large traders	How is economic value (profit) distributed among the different actors in DFVCs, and how is this changing over time?
	Economy: conduct	There is a significant but largely undocumented domestic and intra-regional trade in DF products that differs significantly from trade in fresh fish products.	What is the volume and value of domestic and international trade in major DF products? How do end markets and consumers of DF products differ from those of fresh fish products?
	Governance: Conduct	Formal governance by the state and other agencies tends to prioritize technical over institutional priorities in DFVCs	What types of formal state and non-state governance impact DFVCs, and how? What attempts have been made by formal institutions to directly govern DFVCs, and with what effects?
	Wellbeing: Performance	DFVCs give rise to a wide variety of wellbeing outcomes that tend to reproduce broader configurations of resource distribution, power, agency, and patterns of cultural preference	How does incorporation into DFVCs and consumption of DF products affect the social wellbeing of different categories of actor? Under what conditions does participation in DFVCs tend to enhance or reduce social wellbeing? What interventions might enhance the social wellbeing of actors in DFVCs who experience low levels of social wellbeing?
Social economy of DF wellbeing
	Material: Livelihoods	DFVCs account for a greater share of fisheries-related livelihood opportunities than fresh fish value chains. The majority of these are land based.	How much employment do DFVCs create for men and women in each VC segment, how is this changing over time, and how does it compare with employment in fresh fish VCs (in terms of numbers of workers)?
	Material: Food safety	Dried fish products are subject to high levels of contamination from bacteria and pesticide residues	What is the extent of pesticide and bacterial contamination in commonly consumed DF products?
	Material: Nutrition	Dried fish products are an important component of diets in all DFM countries, and contribute significantly and disproportionately to the micro-nutrient intakes of low income consumers	What is the micronutrient contribution of DF for diets in DFM countries for different classes of consumer? How is micronutrient contribution of DF to diets changing over time, absolutely and relative to other sources of micronutrients?
	Subjective: Identity	DF production and consumption is a marker of identity that can have positive or negative associations, depending on location	What (positive and negative) associations does consumption of DF have? Which products and which categories of person do these apply to? Are these associations changing over time; why? What (positive and negative) associations does participation in DFVC have? For which actors? Are these associations changing over time; why?
	Relational: Labour	DFVCs are characterized by a wide variety of labour arrangements, ranging from egalitarian to highly exploitative	What are the main types of labor arrangement present in each value chain segment? What are the origins and purpose of each type of arrangement? How are they changing? What are the working conditions associated with employment in each segment of DFVCs, how are these changing?
	Relational: Gender	The division of labor in DFVCs is highly gendered, with women accounting for a majority of the workforce, but often in roles that are subordinate/less lucrative than those assumed by men.	What roles in DFVCs are performed by men and women, in what numbers? What is the logic for the gendering of these roles? How do men’s and women’s terms of incorporation into DFVCs differ, are the changing over time; why/how?
	Relational: Governance	DFVCs are shaped principally by informal modes of governance	What modes of governance structure social relations within and between VC segments? Who do these governance arrangements benefit, and how are they changing?
Interventions to enhance wellbeing
	Food safety	There is considerable opportunity to enhance the nutritional contribution of dried fish by reducing contamination	What are the most appropriate and promising technical or institutional interventions for enhancing the contribution of DF to human nutrition? How might they be scaled up?
	Food security	Improvements in processing, transport, and labour relations have the potential to increase food security of DF reliant workers and consumers	What are the most appropriate and promising technical or institutional interventions for enhancing the contribution of DF to food security? How might they be scaled up?
	Culturally appropriate food	Awareness of local DF preferences can inform policy better attuned to particular populations	How can understanding local DF consumption preferences inform policy to support DFVCs more effectively?
	Governance	There are considerable unexplored opportunities for improved self-organization in the sector that could enhance wellbeing	What types of new governance arrangement could contribute to enhanced wellbeing among DFVC actors?